Prior to its planned broadcast on Peacock later this year, the National Heads-Up Poker Championship winner was meant to be kept under wraps. However, PokerScout was the first to disclose that Polymarket seemed to have revealed the secret.

Spoiler alert: Sam Soverel, a Floridian, was trading at 90.5% on the prediction platform at the time of writing, down from a peak of 99.4%. The sharp increase in Soverel's price—one player out of a field of 64—strongly implies that someone had knowledge that the rest of us did not, knowledge that would have been covered by a nondisclosure agreement.

After a 12-year break, the tournament, which was filmed in early August, is returning. Peacock intends to broadcast ten episodes beginning this autumn, which will be rebroadcast on PokerGO.

The Insider Issue

The case draws attention to the issue of insider trading on a platform such as Polymarket, which is not subject to federal regulation like its rival, Kalshi. If that were the case, an inquiry into possible market manipulation, insider trading infractions, and noncompliance with the Commodity Exchange Act may be triggered.

It is generally forbidden for operators in state-regulated traditional sports betting markets to place wagers on events whose outcomes are already known to a select few. Because of the potential for insider manipulation, you are not allowed to wager on professional wrestling or the Oscars.

The odds for Venezuelan opposition leader and eventual winner María Corina Machado increased from 3.6% to 73% in a matter of hours on the eve of last Friday's Nobel Peace Prize announcement—again suggesting that someone was using confidential information.

In an attempt to profit from the same knowledge edge, traders frequently search transaction data for clear indications of insider betting.

Eliminate All Secrets

Insider trading is not prohibited by Polymarket. In fact, economist Robin Hanson of George Mason University has contended that the platform's predicting capabilities were enhanced by permitting insiders to trade.

"If the point of [prediction] markets is to get accurate information, then you definitely want to allow insiders to trade,” he recently told crypto publication Decrypt.

However, try explaining it to the poker enthusiasts for whom the National Heads-Up Poker Championship has been destroyed or to Peacock, whose viewing numbers may suffer as a result of the leak. It serves as a reminder that secrets are merely another traded asset in prediction markets.